March 8, 2010 by Muqaawama
$1.05 trillion already appropriated by Congress. Billions more on the way to support the surge in Afghanistan and the drawdown in Iraq. Over 5,300 American women and men dead. Over 30,000 wounded, in Iraq alone. Hundreds of thousands of others who will rely on government health care for the rest of their lives to cope with the mental issues and post traumatic stress of fighting a guerrilla war with a largely conventional military. This does not include the millions of Iraqi and Afghan dead and displaced, the billions in damage to infrastructure and communities in both countries, the global shock to oil prices that precipitated and continued through the invasions and wreaked havoc on economies across the globe.
Here we have the costs of the shooting War on Terror over the last 9 years. Of course, it does not include the billions of secret dollars spent on an array of intelligence agencies and the behemoth bureaucracy of homeland security. Now, lets look at the other side of the ledger: what have we gained? Neither Iraq or Afghanistan have emerged as the beacon of liberal democracy that our leaders have promised. But let’s put that aside for a moment and be a bit more realistic, more calculating. After all, no rational American can honestly believe that we invaded either of these countries to liberate their people and bestow freedom. If that were true we would have liberated the Congo or Burma or Sudan long ago. If that were true we wouldn’t have supported brutal dictators in places like Egypt, Pakistan, and until 1990, Iraq itself.
Let’s have an honest, wholly Machiavellian conversation devoid of patriotic rhetoric for once. We invaded Iraq and Afghanistan because it was decided by our policy makers to be in our national interest to do so. That’s what nation-states do- they act in their national interest. The question is, after all the blood and treasure, has our national interest been furthered? Nine years later, are Iraq and Afghanistan secure bastions of American influence or, at least, less under the influence of our adversaries? Or, have our adversaries, particularly one adversary, capitalized more than we have on these changes we have wrought with precious lives and steel?
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Posted in Afghanistan, Hizbullah, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam | Tagged Afghanistan, America, Americans, democracy, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
February 22, 2010 by Muqaawama
In the latest news from Iraq, that forgotten battlefield where over 100,000 uniformed American men and women (and thousands of others without uniforms) are still stationed, the main Sunni political party has just withdrawn from next month’s national elections. Their reason: A vetting panel headed by two Shi’ite politicians with close ties to Iran has disqualified over 500 candidates for dubious ties to Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath party. The culprits: Ali al Lami, a guy who sends death squads to kill Sunnis and plants bombs targeting US GIs, and, surprise, surprise, our old friend, Ahmad Chalabi.
If you remember, once upon a time, Chalabi was the American darling, the guy who fed us the detailed (and doctored) intelligence on Saddam’s “imminent” threat to America that justified the 2003 invasion. The guy who promised to spear-head a renewed, democratic Iraq that would stabilize a stagnating region and project freedom and democracy towards, among other countries, extremist Iran. Now, it seems he is playing for the team he was originally recruited to fight against. A country that cannot tolerate any dissent within its own borders and has steadily expanded its influence throughout the region since the American war machine removed the mullah’s two most virulent enemies: The Taliban and Saddam.
It wouldn’t have been too difficult to pinpoint the character flaws in a guy like Chalabi long ago- the incessant greed, the consummately feudal outlook to political power as merely a means to enrich oneself and grow more powerful; in essence, everything about Middle East leaders that needs changing. Born into a family of carpet bagging courtiers to the old Iraqi monarchy (itself an artificial British transplant), Chalabi fled Iraq after the Ba’athist revolution and was the darling of the Jordanians before he was the darling of the Americans. Then, the Jordanians found out he had defrauded thousands of their citizens through his Petra Bank pyramid scheme. If it weren’t for the Jordanian royal family’s involvement (you guessed it, again, an artificial British transplant), Chalabi might have been lynched by a mob. Instead, he went free.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, September 11, Sunni, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, elections, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, democracy, elections, Iran, Iraq, islam, Jordan, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
February 16, 2010 by Muqaawama
In a nondescript compound somewhere in the mountainous Tribal Areas of Pakistan, Osama Bin Laden sits cross-legged with his top lieutenant, Ayman Zawahiri, and watches Dick Cheney on ABC’s This Week this past Sunday. Osama sits in silence listening to the Mother Hen of America’s Chicken Hawks- the cabal of ideologues with names like Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Perle, Feith, Rice; the ones who, like Osama, are good at sending other people’s sons and daughters, mothers and fathers, off to war. And as Cheney begins to chirp his muscular sing-song and flex his wing span, a devilish grin rivaling the former Veep’s own signature smirk spreads across Osama’s face…
Zawahiri: ”He says our attacks are an act of war, not for criminal prosecution.”
Osama: ”Good. We are at war. Much of the world, even many of our own brothers, had forgotten that now that America has a president named Hussein who makes speeches to Muslims about peace. Mr. Cheney reminds the Crusader-Jews of their anger, of their duty to fight. Anger is what we want. Rage begets rage. It fuels the jihad that swells our ranks.”
Zawahiri: “He says Iraq was the right thing to do. That Saddam had a relationship with terror.”
Osama: [chuckling] “Remember when Saddam invaded Kuwait and we went to my Saudi friend Prince Turki and offered to defend the Holy Land against this Godless Arab pretender instead of letting the Americans handle him? Now, history has been rewritten and he was our patron! No matter. Let Mr. Cheney rewrite history. We ourselves have done so on occasion to bring our traditions more in line with our own brand of Islam. This man Cheney understands you must control the past at all costs to rule the future.
What a favor the Americans did for us, and for the Iranians as well for that matter, by getting rid of that secular Ba’athist fool, Saddam. Before Iraq the wounds of 9/11 were still fresh, and the world was with America. Iraq gave us the window we needed to show the world the ugly side- to convince the faithful that this was not justified retribution but a sustained campaign for Muslim blood. Let Mr. Cheney talk about Iraq. In fact, make sure a tape of this discussion gets to Al Jazira, Al Arabia, and all the other local Arab stations with appropriate subtitles. Let the world see how self-righteous Americans still boast about crusade in Iraq even as their British allies confess shame at the thousands of innocents murdered and maimed, the millions of refugees. When the world listens to an unrepentant America, when American made bullets continue to kill Palestinian children, no one really cares about the atrocities committed by Al Qaeda in the name of God.”
Zawahiri: “He says the biggest strategic threat to America is Al Qaeda!”
[Shouts of joy and tongue ulullations reverberate within the compound until Osama signals for calm.]
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Radical, September 11, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, Iran, Iraq, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
February 10, 2010 by Muqaawama
George Washington University professor Jonathan Turley said it best yesterday on Keith Olbermann regarding the British Public Inquiry into the Iraq War that recently saw former Prime Minister Tony Blair extensively questioned:
“The British have this quaint notion, don’t they, that their leaders should have to explain decisions that cost thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Could you imagine George Bush being questioned for 5 or 6 hours. The fact that we can’t imagine that really says that there is something wrong with our political system. Ultimately, American citizens are likely to learn more from our British cousins than they are from our Congress or our leaders about a war that has cost us dearly.”
I get it. Most of us want to move on from this embarrassing chapter in American history. This is particularly true for those of us who spent time in Iraq, saw the devastation first hand, the lives lost and shattered, the mismanagement and chaos. We want to forget that our leaders fixed the intelligence around a relentless objective of regime change in Iraq at all costs. We want to forget that they spent no time planning for the aftermath and how to put back together the nation they had taken apart. It’s nice to forget and move on. Far easier than justice and accountability.
The problem is we are not just dealing with the past. The long war against extremism is still raging and the fall out from our past actions still accumulates. The world is watching, particularly the Muslim world. We like to quip in lofty speeches and capital gang round tables that the terrorists are fascist demagogues that don’t believe in anything. That it is our universal values, our history of laws, our respect for the rights of man that separate us from our adversaries. But words can’t compete with deeds. The emerging civil societies of the Middle East are smart enough to pinpoint the gaping deficit between what we say and what we do. And the way the American political system has systematically swept all accountability for the Iraq war under the carpet only reinforces the prevailing narrative in the region.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Egypt, Fundamentalism, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, September 11, South Asia, Sunni, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, democracy, Egypt, Gaza, Iran, Iraq, islam, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, Muslims, Palestine, Palestinians, Radical, Saudi Arabia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
February 3, 2010 by Muqaawama
Pakistan has come to another critical point in its war against extremism with the unconfirmed reports that the Pakistani Taliban leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, has succumbed to wounds he sustained in a U.S. drone attack in January. If the reports prove true, that would be two Taliban leaders, as well as numerous mid-level operatives, lost to targeted attacks in less than 6 months. The CIA’s unmanned drone campaign in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas seems to have decimated Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership and severely disrupted their command and control structures.
But the true true test will come in the days and weeks ahead. If the Taliban have truly lost their leader once again, there will be considerable pressure to prove to the world that they are still strong, that they can hit back. If this retribution comes in the form of further jihadist attacks with civilian casualties in the Pakistani heartlands further south, this will elicit a further deterioration of the Taliban’s image in the eyes of average Pakistanis. As Pakistani public opinion hardens against indiscriminate Taliban violence, the Pakistani state and military will have more space and support to exploit, divide and defeat the extremist threat. This is the downward spiral the Pakistani Taliban has experienced over the last year. It is an important lesson in waging the broader, global war against extremism.
In the long war, reactions are often more telling than actions. How each side responds to provocation, or concession, by the other side can mean the difference between a surge or a spiral. The turning point for the Pakistani Taliban came in the early months of 2009 when they began to creep into the Swat Valley, calling for full implementation of Shariah law. For Swat Valley residents tired of government corruption, discrimination, neo-feudalism and non-existent public services, the Taliban represented a new possibility. Perhaps they would govern with less naked greed and provide the kind of law, order and justice that the government in Islamabad could not.
The Pakistani government did not have the public backing for a military campaign against the Taliban at this stage. The extremists were widely viewed as misunderstood warriors of the faith who served their purpose: protecting Pakistan’s northern frontier from Indian encroachment and continuing the fight against occupation in Kashmir. The government caved. They signed a peace agreement and let Shariah law rule in Swat in exchange for the Taliban laying down their arms.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, Iran, Iraq, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taliban, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 29, 2010 by Muqaawama
In his Thursday column in the Washington Post David Ignatius highlights a new emphasis in U.S. counter-terror strategy : relying more on partner-nations around the world. As the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to cost us in lives, treasure, global reputation and standing, this makes sense. We should rely more on our partner governments in places like Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to lead the fight against extremism within their own borders. We can assist in training, equipment and intelligence sharing, but at the end of the day, these are complex local problems which require local solutions.
But is it enough to continue to throw money and expertise at a problem and hope they are used effectively by other governments outside our control? We partnered with the Saudis and Pakistanis in the 1980s to challenge the Soviets in Afghanistan. We ended up replacing a Soviet adversary with a hard core jihadist cabal even more dedicated to the destruction of Western civilization. More recently, the Bush administration siphoned $10 billion down the rat hole of President Musharraf’s Pakistan in the years after 9/11. Today, Pakistan is less stable and arguably more a fulcrum of extremism than at any other time in its history. Osama Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and others continue to operate from its hinterlands with impunity.
A true partnership needs teeth- carrots to incentivize, but sticks as well to discourage the litany of bad behavior associated with our foreign aid programs since they began. It cannot be the usual game of cocktail parties on the diplomatic circuit, empty rhetoric at conferences and glib policy briefings between “allies”. Not when American lives are at stake. We are getting better at this- calibrating aid to key countries on an array of progress benchmarks to be met or exceeded. But more needs to be done.
One possibility is to take a variant of the model recently established by our Department of Education for federal aid to the 50 states and apply it to our counter-terror relationships. The DOE’s Race to the Top program earmarks over $4 billion for state education departments- again, localizing the solution by recognizing that each state knows best how to allocate resources to their local education problems. However, a state’s share of the pie depends on the educational reforms it spear-heads thru its own initiative- establishing standards for student achievement, turning around the poorest performing schools, rewarding teachers based on performance.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, September 11, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, islam, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Palestine, Palestinians, Radical, South Asia, Taliban, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 25, 2010 by Muqaawama
France’s parliament will be debating a full ban on the hijab, or Muslim face veil, this Spring. The Dutch are considering a similar ban in schools and government offices. Several states in Germany have already banned teachers from wearing the veil. The Swiss will most likely debate a ban soon, after recently prohibiting the construction of new mosque minarets. Dutch far-right parliamentarian Geert Wilders went on trial last week for, among other things, calling for an end to “the Islamic invasion” and likening the Koran to Mein Kampf.
Restricting overtly Islamic dress is nothing new, even within the Muslim world. Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey all have varying degrees of prohibition against the veil to combat the influence of political Islam in their societies. For most women, many of them Muslim, the veil has no basis in Islamic tradition. It is an innovation meant to exploit and oppress. But perhaps the more pertinent question is this: in Europe’s thousand year history of conflict and coexistence with the Islamic world, why is the reaction to Islamic symbolism gathering steam now? Europe certainly is not more Christian than in any time in its history. On the contrary, one can say religion has been playing a steadily decreasing roll in politics and society since the age of Inquisition and Crusade. So what’s going on?
One must look at this as a struggle over collective identity, with Islam and Europe representing opposite sides of the same coin. The supreme irony is that as the co-dependency between Europe and the Muslim world builds, so does potential conflict. As Europe ages, it must import more and more younger workers from the Muslim world to fuel the labor demands of its economies. Similarly, Muslim economies have failed to provide for the employment and social safety net needs of their growing populations. The people move where the supply-demand imbalances are. In places like France and Germany, Muslim workers are approaching 5% of the total population. They are more visible than at any other time in history.
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Posted in Al Qaeda, Egypt, Europe, Fundamentalism, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, U.S. Foreign Policy, Women, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Egypt, Europe, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 18, 2010 by Muqaawama
One wonders exactly where Pakistani President Asif Zardari was when he first wrote the above headline for his Washington Post Op-Ed that appeared in the print edition this past Friday. (The Post subsequently changed the headline in the on-line version. Hmmm…). Perhaps Zardari was in his villa in Dubai or his chalet in Switzerland. Maybe he was looking out the window of a penthouse apartment overlooking London. It’s hard to imagine he was in Pakistan. At least, not the Pakistan that has teetered between financial insolvency, jihadist implosion, and nuclear exchange for much of its 50 year existence. Crumbling schools, abject poverty and deteriorating infrastructure. Where are these realities accommodated within the “Greatness” of Zardari’s imagination? With this disgusting level of denial, one wonders if Zardari has spent even a day of his life in the real Pakistan. For those of us who count many kind, hardworking Pakistanis as our friends, Zardari’s ridiculous title and self-serving words are the height of insult.
Of course, we are talking about a president who is flailing to remain relevant in a political system that increasingly sees him as the symbol of everything that is wrong with Pakistan. He will say anything to rehabilitate his image, and if he doesn’t have a domestic audience the next best thing is to reach out for a little love from Pakistan’s primary super-power patron, the United States. Talking about lofty goals and grand partnerships abroad is a time-tested politician’s strategy to deflect attention from mismanagement and greed at home. But there is too much sordid history here for even an accomplished swindler like Zardari to overcome. Long before callously maneuvering himself into the President’s office in the wake of his wife Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, Zardari was known even within his own party as the guy who would trim gravy off the top of any government decision. Hence his well-deserved nickname during his late wife’s last administration in the 1990s- “Mr. 10%.”
Should we blame the system or the individual? Those of us who have lived and worked in Pakistan are confident of one thing- long after Zardari is gone corruption will remain a potent force in Pakistani society. It scares away legitimate investment and opportunity. It contributes to instability, violent crime and terrorism. It enables the more authoritarian figures peppered throughout Pakistan’s volatile history to act with the full sympathy of the population. For all of the Pakistani military’s issues, it is still regarded as the cleanest, most effective institution in the country. When there is no viable civilian alternative, as Zardari so aptly demonstrates, the tilt is inevitably toward the generals.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, India, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, India, islam, Middle East, Muslims, nuclear, Pakistan, South Asia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 14, 2010 by Muqaawama
As Iran’s Summer of Outrage gives way to a sustained Winter of Discontent, those who predicted the protest movement would wither in the face of massive state repression are scrambling to re-evaluate. Brave Iranians have not backed down, despite rape, murder, torture, and, most recently, indications of targeted killings. On the contrary, the bravado of the protest movement has only escalated as we have seen images of crowds taunting and surrounding regime thugs, pulling their helmets off and parading them in the streets. A more subtle development and considerably more telling- the revolutionary ideology that propelled the mullahs to power in 1979 has been taken from them as increasingly the Green protest movement has appropriated the language and symbolism of political Islam to wage its civil disobedience campaign. This has divided the ruling elite and turned the guardians of the state against one another. Hard-liners on both sides of the divide have predictably asserted themselves, reducing any room for compromise. Are we witnessing the end of the Islamic Republic?
It is certainly clear that things will never be the same between the state and the people in Iran. As Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi affirms in a recent interview with Foreign Policy Magazine, its nonsense to think of the protest movement as a tiny group of educated elites in Tehran angry about a stolen election. The discontent has spread from city to hinterland, from students in universities to those studying in religious seminaries. It is no longer about an electoral debacle- this was only the spark that released pent up dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction with the fundamental nature of the regime itself.
It is no longer a fanciful dream for ordinary Iranians to begin to imagine a different Iran, one where simple freedoms and full acceptance by the global community of nations are a reality. But what will this new Iran look like? And how will it act? The answer is a bit more complicated than one might think.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Ahmadinejad, Fundamentalism, Hamas, Hizbullah, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Mousavi, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, Shia, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, elections, islam, nuclear weapon, terrorism | Tagged Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Mousavi, mullah, Muslims, nuclear, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 5, 2010 by Muqaawama
Muslims who are willing to die for a despicable ideology keep popping up. In addition to the Christmas bomber, the latest culprit is the Jordanian double-agent who infiltrated a CIA base in Afghanistan, killing seven Americans and another Jordanian agent when he blew himself up.
What’s going on? Jordan is considered a moderate Arab nation, at peace with Israel and ruled by a Western educated king who has been cooperating with the United States against Islamic extremism for some time. Jordanians themselves have been victims of Islamic terrorism, most prominently in the Amman hotel bombings in 2005. Anyone who has spent time in the kingdom cannot but rave about the hospitality and friendliness of Jordanians. A thriving Christian community has existed in the country since the birth of Christianity and the government has since independence embraced a tradition of avowed secularism.
Are these simply crazy men perpetrating these acts time and time again or is there something more alluring about the extremist message that we are missing?
Much of what is to blame is perception and insecurity rather than reality. Columnists like Tom Friedman talk about the Narrative- a popular cocktail of half-truths that is broadcast to the Muslim masses by Jihadist media, Arab intellectuals, mosque preachers, and satellite news stations with the tacit approval of many regimes in the Middle East. It blames all the problems in the region on a Jewish-Christian conspiracy against the Muslim world, deflecting attention away from bad governance at home and towards an external other. Governments from Iran to Saudi Arabia to Egypt quietly take heart at this potent mix of vitriol that diverts the Muslim street, focusing their anger on an external threat. Murderers like Osama and Zawahiri ride the wave of propaganda, signing up recruits.
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Posted in Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Al Qaeda, America, democracy, Egypt, Iraq, islam, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Palestine, Palestinians, Radical, Saudi Arabia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | 1 Comment »
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