February 3, 2010 by Muqaawama
Pakistan has come to another critical point in its war against extremism with the unconfirmed reports that the Pakistani Taliban leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, has succumbed to wounds he sustained in a U.S. drone attack in January. If the reports prove true, that would be two Taliban leaders, as well as numerous mid-level operatives, lost to targeted attacks in less than 6 months. The CIA’s unmanned drone campaign in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas seems to have decimated Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership and severely disrupted their command and control structures.
But the true true test will come in the days and weeks ahead. If the Taliban have truly lost their leader once again, there will be considerable pressure to prove to the world that they are still strong, that they can hit back. If this retribution comes in the form of further jihadist attacks with civilian casualties in the Pakistani heartlands further south, this will elicit a further deterioration of the Taliban’s image in the eyes of average Pakistanis. As Pakistani public opinion hardens against indiscriminate Taliban violence, the Pakistani state and military will have more space and support to exploit, divide and defeat the extremist threat. This is the downward spiral the Pakistani Taliban has experienced over the last year. It is an important lesson in waging the broader, global war against extremism.
In the long war, reactions are often more telling than actions. How each side responds to provocation, or concession, by the other side can mean the difference between a surge or a spiral. The turning point for the Pakistani Taliban came in the early months of 2009 when they began to creep into the Swat Valley, calling for full implementation of Shariah law. For Swat Valley residents tired of government corruption, discrimination, neo-feudalism and non-existent public services, the Taliban represented a new possibility. Perhaps they would govern with less naked greed and provide the kind of law, order and justice that the government in Islamabad could not.
The Pakistani government did not have the public backing for a military campaign against the Taliban at this stage. The extremists were widely viewed as misunderstood warriors of the faith who served their purpose: protecting Pakistan’s northern frontier from Indian encroachment and continuing the fight against occupation in Kashmir. The government caved. They signed a peace agreement and let Shariah law rule in Swat in exchange for the Taliban laying down their arms.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, Iran, Iraq, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taliban, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 29, 2010 by Muqaawama
In his Thursday column in the Washington Post David Ignatius highlights a new emphasis in U.S. counter-terror strategy : relying more on partner-nations around the world. As the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue to cost us in lives, treasure, global reputation and standing, this makes sense. We should rely more on our partner governments in places like Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to lead the fight against extremism within their own borders. We can assist in training, equipment and intelligence sharing, but at the end of the day, these are complex local problems which require local solutions.
But is it enough to continue to throw money and expertise at a problem and hope they are used effectively by other governments outside our control? We partnered with the Saudis and Pakistanis in the 1980s to challenge the Soviets in Afghanistan. We ended up replacing a Soviet adversary with a hard core jihadist cabal even more dedicated to the destruction of Western civilization. More recently, the Bush administration siphoned $10 billion down the rat hole of President Musharraf’s Pakistan in the years after 9/11. Today, Pakistan is less stable and arguably more a fulcrum of extremism than at any other time in its history. Osama Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and others continue to operate from its hinterlands with impunity.
A true partnership needs teeth- carrots to incentivize, but sticks as well to discourage the litany of bad behavior associated with our foreign aid programs since they began. It cannot be the usual game of cocktail parties on the diplomatic circuit, empty rhetoric at conferences and glib policy briefings between “allies”. Not when American lives are at stake. We are getting better at this- calibrating aid to key countries on an array of progress benchmarks to be met or exceeded. But more needs to be done.
One possibility is to take a variant of the model recently established by our Department of Education for federal aid to the 50 states and apply it to our counter-terror relationships. The DOE’s Race to the Top program earmarks over $4 billion for state education departments- again, localizing the solution by recognizing that each state knows best how to allocate resources to their local education problems. However, a state’s share of the pie depends on the educational reforms it spear-heads thru its own initiative- establishing standards for student achievement, turning around the poorest performing schools, rewarding teachers based on performance.
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January 25, 2010 by Muqaawama
France’s parliament will be debating a full ban on the hijab, or Muslim face veil, this Spring. The Dutch are considering a similar ban in schools and government offices. Several states in Germany have already banned teachers from wearing the veil. The Swiss will most likely debate a ban soon, after recently prohibiting the construction of new mosque minarets. Dutch far-right parliamentarian Geert Wilders went on trial last week for, among other things, calling for an end to “the Islamic invasion” and likening the Koran to Mein Kampf.
Restricting overtly Islamic dress is nothing new, even within the Muslim world. Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey all have varying degrees of prohibition against the veil to combat the influence of political Islam in their societies. For most women, many of them Muslim, the veil has no basis in Islamic tradition. It is an innovation meant to exploit and oppress. But perhaps the more pertinent question is this: in Europe’s thousand year history of conflict and coexistence with the Islamic world, why is the reaction to Islamic symbolism gathering steam now? Europe certainly is not more Christian than in any time in its history. On the contrary, one can say religion has been playing a steadily decreasing roll in politics and society since the age of Inquisition and Crusade. So what’s going on?
One must look at this as a struggle over collective identity, with Islam and Europe representing opposite sides of the same coin. The supreme irony is that as the co-dependency between Europe and the Muslim world builds, so does potential conflict. As Europe ages, it must import more and more younger workers from the Muslim world to fuel the labor demands of its economies. Similarly, Muslim economies have failed to provide for the employment and social safety net needs of their growing populations. The people move where the supply-demand imbalances are. In places like France and Germany, Muslim workers are approaching 5% of the total population. They are more visible than at any other time in history.
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Posted in Al Qaeda, Egypt, Europe, Fundamentalism, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, U.S. Foreign Policy, Women, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Egypt, Europe, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 18, 2010 by Muqaawama
One wonders exactly where Pakistani President Asif Zardari was when he first wrote the above headline for his Washington Post Op-Ed that appeared in the print edition this past Friday. (The Post subsequently changed the headline in the on-line version. Hmmm…). Perhaps Zardari was in his villa in Dubai or his chalet in Switzerland. Maybe he was looking out the window of a penthouse apartment overlooking London. It’s hard to imagine he was in Pakistan. At least, not the Pakistan that has teetered between financial insolvency, jihadist implosion, and nuclear exchange for much of its 50 year existence. Crumbling schools, abject poverty and deteriorating infrastructure. Where are these realities accommodated within the “Greatness” of Zardari’s imagination? With this disgusting level of denial, one wonders if Zardari has spent even a day of his life in the real Pakistan. For those of us who count many kind, hardworking Pakistanis as our friends, Zardari’s ridiculous title and self-serving words are the height of insult.
Of course, we are talking about a president who is flailing to remain relevant in a political system that increasingly sees him as the symbol of everything that is wrong with Pakistan. He will say anything to rehabilitate his image, and if he doesn’t have a domestic audience the next best thing is to reach out for a little love from Pakistan’s primary super-power patron, the United States. Talking about lofty goals and grand partnerships abroad is a time-tested politician’s strategy to deflect attention from mismanagement and greed at home. But there is too much sordid history here for even an accomplished swindler like Zardari to overcome. Long before callously maneuvering himself into the President’s office in the wake of his wife Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, Zardari was known even within his own party as the guy who would trim gravy off the top of any government decision. Hence his well-deserved nickname during his late wife’s last administration in the 1990s- “Mr. 10%.”
Should we blame the system or the individual? Those of us who have lived and worked in Pakistan are confident of one thing- long after Zardari is gone corruption will remain a potent force in Pakistani society. It scares away legitimate investment and opportunity. It contributes to instability, violent crime and terrorism. It enables the more authoritarian figures peppered throughout Pakistan’s volatile history to act with the full sympathy of the population. For all of the Pakistani military’s issues, it is still regarded as the cleanest, most effective institution in the country. When there is no viable civilian alternative, as Zardari so aptly demonstrates, the tilt is inevitably toward the generals.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, India, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, India, islam, Middle East, Muslims, nuclear, Pakistan, South Asia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 14, 2010 by Muqaawama
As Iran’s Summer of Outrage gives way to a sustained Winter of Discontent, those who predicted the protest movement would wither in the face of massive state repression are scrambling to re-evaluate. Brave Iranians have not backed down, despite rape, murder, torture, and, most recently, indications of targeted killings. On the contrary, the bravado of the protest movement has only escalated as we have seen images of crowds taunting and surrounding regime thugs, pulling their helmets off and parading them in the streets. A more subtle development and considerably more telling- the revolutionary ideology that propelled the mullahs to power in 1979 has been taken from them as increasingly the Green protest movement has appropriated the language and symbolism of political Islam to wage its civil disobedience campaign. This has divided the ruling elite and turned the guardians of the state against one another. Hard-liners on both sides of the divide have predictably asserted themselves, reducing any room for compromise. Are we witnessing the end of the Islamic Republic?
It is certainly clear that things will never be the same between the state and the people in Iran. As Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi affirms in a recent interview with Foreign Policy Magazine, its nonsense to think of the protest movement as a tiny group of educated elites in Tehran angry about a stolen election. The discontent has spread from city to hinterland, from students in universities to those studying in religious seminaries. It is no longer about an electoral debacle- this was only the spark that released pent up dissatisfaction. Dissatisfaction with the fundamental nature of the regime itself.
It is no longer a fanciful dream for ordinary Iranians to begin to imagine a different Iran, one where simple freedoms and full acceptance by the global community of nations are a reality. But what will this new Iran look like? And how will it act? The answer is a bit more complicated than one might think.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Ahmadinejad, Fundamentalism, Hamas, Hizbullah, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Mousavi, Muslims, Pakistan, Radical, Shia, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, elections, islam, nuclear weapon, terrorism | Tagged Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Mousavi, mullah, Muslims, nuclear, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
January 5, 2010 by Muqaawama
Muslims who are willing to die for a despicable ideology keep popping up. In addition to the Christmas bomber, the latest culprit is the Jordanian double-agent who infiltrated a CIA base in Afghanistan, killing seven Americans and another Jordanian agent when he blew himself up.
What’s going on? Jordan is considered a moderate Arab nation, at peace with Israel and ruled by a Western educated king who has been cooperating with the United States against Islamic extremism for some time. Jordanians themselves have been victims of Islamic terrorism, most prominently in the Amman hotel bombings in 2005. Anyone who has spent time in the kingdom cannot but rave about the hospitality and friendliness of Jordanians. A thriving Christian community has existed in the country since the birth of Christianity and the government has since independence embraced a tradition of avowed secularism.
Are these simply crazy men perpetrating these acts time and time again or is there something more alluring about the extremist message that we are missing?
Much of what is to blame is perception and insecurity rather than reality. Columnists like Tom Friedman talk about the Narrative- a popular cocktail of half-truths that is broadcast to the Muslim masses by Jihadist media, Arab intellectuals, mosque preachers, and satellite news stations with the tacit approval of many regimes in the Middle East. It blames all the problems in the region on a Jewish-Christian conspiracy against the Muslim world, deflecting attention away from bad governance at home and towards an external other. Governments from Iran to Saudi Arabia to Egypt quietly take heart at this potent mix of vitriol that diverts the Muslim street, focusing their anger on an external threat. Murderers like Osama and Zawahiri ride the wave of propaganda, signing up recruits.
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Posted in Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged Al Qaeda, America, democracy, Egypt, Iraq, islam, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Palestine, Palestinians, Radical, Saudi Arabia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | 1 Comment »
January 2, 2010 by Muqaawama
Has anyone else been disgusted with the media frenzy surrounding the Christmas Day airline bombing, the endless chatter on what we did and did not do, the recriminations and counter-recriminations by each party about a resurgent terrorist threat and how ill-prepared we are to deal with it?
I take away something entirely different. Eight years after a well-coordinated attack that brought down or damaged some of the most potent symbols of American might, Al Qaeda’s most successful encore is a scared, lonely, under-sexed Nigerian kid trying to light his underwear on fire. That tells me something. Al Qaeda is not the organization it was eight years ago.
Actually, it wasn’t even the Al Qaeda we know. The organization in Yemen most likely responsible for orchestrating the attack is a start-up venture, certainly taking its inspiration from the original Al Qaeda but having independent leadership (most likely radicalized in Guatanamo rather than Afghanistan) and funding.
Where are Bin Laden and Zawahiri’s hardened jihadists, bent on a Clash of Civilizations? Do they do anything more than release a canned video tape every few months to let the world know they are still hanging on? Does Mullah Omar’s Taliban even consult them any more as it devises its own Afghan insurgency strategy from Pakistan’s Quetta sanctuaries? Is Al Qaeda even operational? Is it relevant anymore?
Perhaps to our own military-intelligence complex. Here, we have spent over a trillion dollars over the past near decade just to fight the conventional war against terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan. This funding trickles down to thousands of private contractors in hundreds of congressional districts. Districts who rely on the massive military installations on their soil for job growth and tax revenue. Congressmen and women in these districts who need the campaign contributions from these private contractors to stay in office. This waterfall of money does not of course include the billions of classified dollars we spend on the intelligence agencies and the funding for the 22 different departments within our government that were recently reorganized under the leadership of the mammoth Department of Homeland Security. All told, between our military, our bureaucracy, private contractors, consultants, think tanks, media talking heads (including the guy writing this), who devote their time, energy, and resources to the Idea of Islamic terrorism- we can say without a doubt that the largest constituency for terror in the world is right here in America.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Radical, September 11, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged 9/11, Al Qaeda, America, Americans, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
December 21, 2009 by Muqaawama
The surprise decision in Switzerland recently to ban the construction of any new mosque minarets has understandably unnerved a lot of people. Europeans hoping for the emergence of a more inclusive Europe and Muslim immigrant populations who have long been a part of the fabric of that Europe were particularly vocal in their condemnation of the vote. The signal sent to the Muslim masses, especially those tempted by the hateful ideology of Islamic extremism, is particularly worrisome. This will unfortunately provide more fodder for those wishing to convince ignorant Muslims that the West sees them as fundamentally “different”, that the rhetoric of peaceful coexistence based on respect is just that- empty rhetoric.
Church bells and minarets have long been two of the more visible parts of the complex relationship between Islam and Europe, since medieval times. These structures, by their imposing architecture and function, have been potent symbols of competing faiths. Throughout history Christian and Muslim rulers alike have sought to restrict their construction and use, passing laws against church bells ringing or the call to prayer emanating from minarets. In Spain, where Islam and Europe had perhaps there most intense interaction as the peninsula was divided between Christian and Muslim rulers for seven centuries, the competition for souls was particularly fierce. In 1002 A.D. the Muslim ruler Al Mansur (“The Victorious”) sacked the Christian shrine city of Santiago de Compostela. According to the sources, he made a point to take down the massive church bells of the city’s main church, forcing captured Christians to haul them 500 miles to the Muslim capital of Cordoba. They were then melted down and hung as lamps in the Great Mosque. The Christians had not forgotten when they retook Cordoba from the Muslims in 1236. King Ferdinand had the lamps carried back to Santiago on the backs of Muslims, melted down again and refashioned as church bells.
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Posted in Al Qaeda, Europe, Fundamentalism, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam, terrorism | Tagged America, Europe, islam, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
December 16, 2009 by Muqaawama
Richard Cohen’s “Programmed to Kill” in yesterday’s Washington Post seemed programmed to spread nothing but fear. After candidly admitting to his readers that it is sometimes hard not to strike an alarmist tone when writing about terrorism, he proceeded to describe the Mumbai terrorists as terminator-like machines who will not be stopped before they obliterate the known world. Not satisfied with this heavy dose of science fiction, he throws in allusions to the Holocaust to get his audience really emotional about the situation.
We don’t need any more reckless emotion in this war against extremism. This is exactly what Bin Laden and his ilk are counting on from the Judeo-Christian world. An emotional response that leads to an escalation on both sides, a war of civilizations. We need to be better than this. And our thought leaders in particular need to be more responsible when they write.
There is no doubt that the Mumbai attackers behaved like automatons, mercilessly killing anyone in their path with little hesitation or remorse. But there were also other, more subtle clues to their behavior that suggest a more complex set of issues underlying the problem of extremism in South Asia (and indeed the world). Any comprehensive solution to the problem needs to address these issues. Cohen himself alludes to this when he says that the lone terrorist who survived was not an Islamic fanatic, but rather a poor Pakistani peasant sold to the terrorists by his father and then brainwashed. Unfortunately, he doesn’t spend any more time delving into this important ingredient of global terrorism, preferring to retreat into base hyperbole about the Holocaust and killer machines.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, India, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Osama, Pakistan, Radical, South Asia, U.S. Foreign Policy, islam | Tagged Al Qaeda, India, Iran, islam, Israel, Middle East, Mumbai, Muslims, Pakistan, Palestinians, Radical, South Asia, terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
December 14, 2009 by Muqaawama
As revelations emerge of more and more American citizens becoming receptive to the Jihadist message- from Nidal Hassan to the Minnesota Somalians to the five Americans most recently captured in Pakistan- we must increasingly ask ourselves what is so appealing about this radical ideology. What motivates these people and why do they choose violence? Moreover, why are moderate Muslim voices so silent about the brutal acts of their more extremist faithful? Why do a bunch of Danish cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad earn more Muslim ire than suicide bombers that kill innocent Muslims or Chinese authorities that brutalize Muslim Uighurs? This is a valid question that a number of Western intellectuals, like Tom Friedman and Moises Naim, have rightly raised. Angry demonstrations, burned out consulates, and protesting Arab diplomats greeted the publication of the Danish cartoons, considered by many Muslims as blasphemous for ignoring the orthodox Islamic prohibition on physical representations of the prophet. For many in the West this goes to the heart of the Muslim bias against the West- Muslim thought leaders have the time to rail against a silly cartoon in a country with a free press that does not discriminate when it comes to faith bashing, but they utter scarcely a shout when there is innocent blood, mostly Muslim blood, on the streets.
Perhaps the key attribute uniting the motivations of all radicalized Muslims is the perception that Islam itself is under attack from the West and must be defended. This is Al Qaeda’s central call to arms- that American and Israeli hegemony in the region, backed by client regimes from Egypt to Turkey, are shedding the blood of innocents from Gaza to Afghanistan. But Muslim insecurity on this issue has been long standing, it hasn’t simply emerged since 9/11 when America and the West suddenly became interested in the psychology of Muslims around the world. It stretches back over centuries of declining empire and global status. This is critical historical context that many of our policy makers either don’t appreciate or don’t care to understand.
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Posted in 9/11, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Fundamentalism, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Muslims, Radical, September 11, South Asia, Taleban, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy, democracy, islam | Tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Americans, Egypt, Hamas, Iran, Iraq, islam, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, Muslims, Pakistan, Palestine, Palestinians, Radical, South Asia, Taliban, U.S. Foreign Policy | Leave a Comment »
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