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Posts Tagged ‘Pakistan’

“We can’t lose focus” after Bin Laden’s death, said the former Secretary of State, the woman who helped author the most costly loss of focus in the history of America’s fight against terrorism.   Of course, Condi Rice had no earthly idea when she spouted her “mushroom cloud” warning years ago that Saddam Hussein had long given up his nuclear program, that his supposed link with Al Qaeda was a fabrication.  But facts didn’t matter as much back in 2002, when fear-mongering was a powerful tool against a fearful America.  Afghanistan was “pacified” but Bin Laden had slipped away at Tora Bora.  America needed a new target.  Preferably a nation-state that would showcase America’s superior conventional military strength.  Something that had borders and didn’t move, like those pesky, shadowy jihadists who were the ones we were really after.  And so, Iraq became the Bush administration’s Weapon of Mass Distraction from the real objectives of the “War on Terror”: killing and capturing terrorists.  A trillion dollars and 5,000 American lives later, Condi Rice goes on ABC News to warn that we can’t lose focus.

Too late.  Al Qaeda hasn’t been in Afghanistan in sufficient numbers in years.  It’s common knowledge that the organization metastasized long ago into more potent franchises in Iraq, Yemen and North Africa.  Even the top leadership of the Taliban are not in Afghanistan.  The Quetta Shura and Mullah Omar- much like Osama Bin Laden until he was taken out unilaterally- operate under the protection of their government patrons, in Pakistan.  Well then, you ask, why does the West still have 140,000 troops in Afghanistan propping up a Karzai government that is reviled by its own people at a time when corrupt strong men across the Muslim world are being toppled by popular revolutions?  Hmmmm.  Because we’ve already thrown so much blood and treasure at our Afghan investment already?  Because if we withdraw now, the world will think we are weak and unable to finish the job?  Because we don’t want Afghanistan to become a staging ground for terrorist attacks on our country again?

These questions and their very structure are more illuminating than the answers could ever be.  The subject is always “us”, the object, “Afghanistan”, when it should be the other way around if we are looking for viable solutions for, namely, Afghanistan.  Long ago, Afghanistan ceased being about Afghanistan and became more about America and our selfish insecurities as a nation.  The longest war in our nation’s history remains unfocused, unsustainable, and detrimental to our nation’s standing and security in ways that are only now becoming visible.  Only recently, American soldiers have admitted to forming kill teams that have murdered Afghan civilians, claiming body parts as take-home trophies.  It’s tough to reconcile a COIN strategy which emphasizes winning local hearts and minds with testosterone-laden kids who just wanna “get some”, taking matters into their own hands when they can’t do what they were trained to do.  Military and civilian agencies continue to coordinate poorly in an increasingly violent Afghan reconstruction environment and have entirely different plans and priorities for resources.  Mass prison breaks and friendly fire attacks on NATO personnel occur with growing frequency.  The annual cost of the Afghan security forces we are training and equipping dwarfs the entire Afghan national budget.  What part of this is about building a nation that can sustain itself?

All this at a time when the arc of fundamental change in the Muslim world is shifting decisively West, towards the Arab heartland where Al Qaeda’s extremist ideology was born.  This is where the fight against Islamic fundamentalism will be won, in the rejuvenated streets of Cairo, Tunis and Damascus.  Unfortunately, that struggle for the most part is not kinetic warfare but the hard slog of compromise and negotiation between civil societies and political parties.  Therefore, America isn’t interested.  What’s profitable about civic development?  What congressional district will it create jobs for?  What Pentagon weapon system will it support?  Mercy Corps doesn’t make campaign contributions.

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A central objective of U.S. strategy in fragile states like Iraq and Afghanistan is to create an environment conducive to internal groups playing nice, settling their differences through political dialogue and compromise rather than violence and insurgency. Therefore, it was with more than a tinge of irony that the world watched one of America’s arch villains, the firebrand cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, return triumphantly thru politics, not violence, to Iraq from exile in Iran last week. America and its Shi’ite ally Prime Minister Maliki had temporarily silenced Sadr through tactical military force and intimidation by routing his Mahdi army on the streets of Basra and Baghdad years ago, only to now see him return through the ballot box as coalition king maker after the recent parliamentary elections. It seems the mullahs have a thing or two to teach us about playing nice and winning thru party politics.

Our goals in the broader war on extremism are laudable- to work with our local partners and create stable, tolerant societies that aren’t breeding grounds for jihadists. Unfortunately, these goals are also flawed and have rarely been questioned seriously by our leadership after nearly a decade of war and thousands of American body bags. Afghanistan is arguably worse off than it was in 2001 shortly after the invasion, with large percentages of the population having little faith in the Karzai government’s ability to improve their lives. Iraq hovers in a still fragile bubble reminiscent of Lebanon in the years before civil war, with different factions jockeying for leverage all under the watchful eye of a shadowy Iran with increasing influence in the country.

American taxpayers have funded billions in state-of-the-art infrastructure in both countries- schools, hospitals, drainage systems, power plants, even water parks. It’s great to have tangible brick and mortar facilities that enrich the bottom-line of government contractors in corporate America and allow visiting congressmen and aid executives to crow about progress. But if local governments don’t have the capacity, personnel, training, or funds to run these facilities, they mean little for the welfare of a country.

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Muslim communities across America can only cringe once again at the latest spate of news: package bombs from Yemen bound for Chicago area synagogues; a plot to simultaneously bomb multiple subway stations in the DC metro area.  In both cases, the main culprits are American citizens of Muslim faith and heritage: in Yemen, Anwar Al Awlaki, a wily American born cleric, has become the spiritual and operational leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and one of the most wanted terrorist operatives on the planet; and Farooque Ahmad, a 34 year-old naturalized American of Pakistani birth caught in an FBI sting operation in Virginia.  Since last year over 60 Americans have been charged or convicted of terrorism, many of them born or converted Muslims with jihadist sympathies.  What is going on?

The Ground Zero mosque episode, the Koran book burning, an embattled president in an election year who spent time as a boy in Indonesia and whose father happened to be Muslim.  As if America Muslims needed another home-spun sound-byte to reduce their profile from bad to worse in the eyes of fellow Americans.  As they have understandably done over the past decade, many American Muslims continue to keep their heads down, practice a quiet faith, pay their taxes, and avoid any overtly political act or public forum.

Is that the answer, though?  Complacency and quietism?  Should American Muslims remain silent for fear of retaliation or humiliation?  Is it better just to not attract attention and quietly disavow the extremists who have perverted Islam for their own ends on the one side, avoiding the ignorant, xenophobic Americans (and Europeans) who blame Islam for all society’s ills on the other?  Is that the extent of the Muslim responsibility when it comes to the future of their own faith and civilization?  Keep your head down, grin and bear it?

Granted, there are other forces that have been at work here for decades that have little to do with religion and that most Americans are completely ignorant of when passing judgement on Islam and Muslims.  A string of secular tyrants in the Middle East, supported with American treasure and arms, torturing and radicalizing their own countrymen and limiting space for moderate forms of political Islam in their own societies.   An American funded jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan that, along with Saudi money and Pakistani organization, fueled the rise of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.  Unconditional American financing and support for an Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands that has gone beyond its 40th year, an occupation that plays into the hands of extremists bent on killing innocents at any cost.

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Hussein was not a dirty word for most American Muslims who watched the first black man inaugurated president two years ago.  The president’s middle name represented a certain hope, not that our new head of state was a closet Muslim, for we all knew better, and, given many of our experiences, we were not advocates for that anyway.  Most of us had to admit that the worst leaders in the Muslim world, both past and present, were and are themselves Muslims.  No, the quiet hope was that this president would understand the complexity and nuance of our particular civilization and history better because he had spent time there, not as an ambassador or a dignitary in a bubble, but as an ordinary young man interacting with the common people.

The beginning was auspicious.   A moving speech in Cairo that lauded Muslim civilization’s past accomplishments but was firm about its deficiencies in the modern era.  A pledge to close a Guatanamo facility that filled the recruiting rolls of Al Qaeda.  Careful deliberations on Iraq and Afghanistan that solidified the long-term goal of ending inconclusive conventional operations in favor of a more nuanced strategy of counter-terror, capacity building and engagement.  The Iranian people were reminded of their great history and that a place was still available for them within the international community, despite the naked duplicity of their leadership.  Israel was forcefully prodded to stop building homes on land the whole world had considered illegally occupied now for over 40 years, an occupation that America’s own military leadership had admitted was a severe liability in the fight against extremism.  Renewed financial support was extended to regimes in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but not without conditions, not if they were to continue their corrupt, opaque ways.

Sadly, all of these good beginnings appear to be unraveling today, and Obama I is starting to look more and more like Bush I & II, as powerful, vested interests reassert themselves.  An extended hand across civilizations- in Cairo, towards Tehran- has given way to embarrassing bigotry over mosques and flaming Korans at home.  Meanwhile, Israeli home building begins in ernest once again in occupied Palestine, along with an added snub- an obligatory loyalty oath to Israel as a Jewish state for Israeli’s Arab citizens, courtesy of the racist wing of the Netanyahu government.  The underlying message to the Muslim masses- whipped up by state sponsored and extremist propaganda machines from Cairo to Qatar: we will lecture you about modernity and secularism at our leisure, but at home and with our allies, anything goes.  This hurts us.

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In Tamim Ansary’s excellent history, Destiny Disrupted: A History of the World Through Islamic Eyes- written in plain, digestable English, not scholar-speak- a particular passage recently struck me as a lost morsel of critical perspective as we wage our “global war against extremism”.  In his book, Ansary is talking about the 7th century battle of Uhud, in which the Prophet Muhammad and his followers are defeated by a Meccan army when they momentarily break ranks in their lust for booty and are led into a trap that kills scores and wounds Muhammad himself.  The lesson learned and the cycle of thought established, early on in Muhammad’s struggle, was that:

“Divine support was not an entitlement; Muslims had to earn the favor of Allah by behaving as commanded and submitting to His will.  This explanation for defeat provided a stencil that Muslims invoked repeatedly in later years, after the Mongol holocaust of the thirteenth century, for example, when nomadic invaders from Central Asia overwhelmed most of the Islamic world, and again in response to Western domination, which began in the eighteenth century and continues to this day.”

Are Muslims still overtly stressing today about Mongol hordes and 7th century battles?  Probably not.  It was a long time ago.  But this history on some level is an integral part of the Muslim consciousness in the same way that Bible stories form an important part of the Christian psyche in America.  They shape attitudes and actions.

This is the problem with civilizations that were once great.  When they inevitably decline, their inheritors often draw the wrong conclusions as to what the problem is and how to fix it.  Since the Islamic world was once so dominant in every way- dwarfing Europe in science, medicine, tolerance, wealth, military technology- for much of its early history, it is a difficult exercise  for Muslims today to admit that the tables have turned and address the root causes dispassionately.  Inevitably, emotions and pride kick in and many fall back on the divine favor exemplified by the Uhud parable, with the West playing the role not of enabling partner but of scourge sent to punish the faithful.  This feeds a pattern of denial that doesn’t solve the problem, but only exacerbates it.

In the Western world, and in particular in the United States, there is another kind of denial playing out.  Reams of position papers, daily briefs, books, op-eds, consultations and conferences have been devoted to fine tuning and teasing out our objectives in this “global campaign”.  $2 trillion and counting has been spent invading, demolishing, rebuilding, and reforming Muslim lands.  Careers and indeed fortunes (largely Western) have been made around buzz words like nation building, local accountability, institutional transparency, conflict resolution, female empowerment.  Freedom and liberty for all.  All worthy goals.  They mean nothing if a large swath of Muslims continue to see the “West” as playing the immutable role of outsider/barbarian in the defining pattern of their world view.

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Hats off to Bob Gates for being a true patriot.  For realizing that the real threat to our national security isn’t a group of angry beards in a Pakistani cave or a gaggle of rogue nations whose combined defense spending doesn’t approach one-tenth of ours, but rather the waste and cozy corruption within our own country.  Most cabinet secretaries jealously guard their resources and territory, resisting any attempts to trim budgets and curtail authority, to reign in the largesse they hand out to private contractors and corporate interests.  Instead, Gates has made it his personal crusade to cut the fat at the Defense Department and give resources back to Congress.  And Congress has refused him.

Congress has refused him?   Trillion dollar deficits, a national debt approaching levels not seen since World War II, an aging population unable to sustain its dependents, and Congress is refusing savings?  Well, if it’s related to defense dollars, and the jobs and political contributions tied to them, then, yes.  A case in point is the “back-up” engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter- a cool half a billion dollar price tag just in case the primary engine for the plane doesn’t measure up.  Doesn’t measure up?  When the government asks you to build something and it doesn’t measure up, then you either fix it or pay the money back, with interest.  But General Electric and Rolls Royce, the corporations who would like to build the back-up engine, don’t see it that way.  They (and their well paid lobbyists in Washington) think the government should hedge its bets and create some “competition” by giving them a piece of the action.  Gates rightly points out that if they wanted a piece of the action, they should have been more competitive in the original tender for the fighter, which was won by Lockheed Martin and its engine partner, Pratt & Whitney.

But this is not how our defense industry or Congress works.  Peel back the veil of “competitive bids” and “strict contracting standards.”  Dig deep.  If you’re Congress, you need to spread the greenbacks around a bit, to the hundreds of counties, communities and states that manufacture disparate parts for weapon systems that we will largely never use.  (As myself and others have said before, don’t count on getting into any dog fights with Al Qaeda any time soon, not when they can penetrate our defenses with an impoverished teenager wearing loaded underwear).  This is the game board that Gates would like to shake up- the defense industry’s shrewd battle map of key political and economic constituencies across the nation and the federal contracts that keep the money, jobs and profits flowing to them and their representatives.  It’s not about national security at all.  On the contrary, it’s about the political insecurity of our elected men and women and their penchant to put their careers ahead of what’s right for the country.  It’s not surprising that it takes an un-elected official to challenge them.

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A pair of instances recently reminded me how both sides- the “West” (more specifically, the United States) and the Muslim World- have engaged in so little self-reflection since the events of 9/11.  It is much easier to project outward than to take a hard look at your own society.  Problems are no longer yours when you can successfully argue that they come from some outside force.  For politicians and pundits, the temptation is too great.

This kind of gamesmanship has approached the truly absurd in the Muslim world.  On Friday a Sufi shrine in Lahore, Pakistan was ripped apart by a triple suicide bombing.  As I have written before, Sufism is the lighter side of Islam- a moderate force whose greater tolerance for things like other faiths and female emancipation has angered Muslim extremists.  It’s long standing traditions and practices across the Muslim world are the most direct, organic challenge to those who would spread the lie- that early Islam’s core strength was its angry, unforgiving unity and purity.  Nothing could have been further from the truth.  Islam’s original spread in the 7th and 8th centuries was indeed aided by the sword, but more important in its ascendancy was its acceptance of other cultures, faiths and its rational discourse on everything from trade to science.  The Christian world, caught in an orgy of religious violence, greed and superstition, could not compete.

How far has Muslim civilization fallen?  How completely have the two sides exchanged places, like a pair of reflections in the same mirror?  After the Lahore attack, demonstrations blaming the United States for the carnage raged across Pakistan.  Normally sane people reasoned that extremists wouldn’t have attacked the shrine if the Pakistani government wasn’t in bed with America.  In the rush to anger, the sick individuals who actually planned and executed the operation seemed to have been all but forgotten.

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One wonders what would have happened if the Times Square car bomb attempt had occurred in Phoenix instead of the teeming, diverse neighborhoods of NYC.  What if the street vendors who tipped off police with vital information that eventually led to Faisal Shahzad’s capture (by his shoe laces) were Latino instead of African-American?  Given Arizona’s new draconian anti-immigrant law, would they have hesitated to come forward?  Would Faisal Shahzad be melting into the no-man’s land of North Waziristan as I write this, reuniting with his patrons to try and kill Americans again?

Our enemies exploit the relative openness of our society to infiltrate and attack us.  They target the loop holes in our legal system to wriggle out of our grasp when they are captured.  They know that unlike their own societies, we are a nation of laws, and that there will inevitably be cracks in the system.  Should we change?  Should we become less open, less welcoming to the immigrant tapestry that has been the life blood of this country since its birth?  Should we take away the fundamental rights of certain individuals because of their ideology or intent?  Is public safety more important than the principles that echo to the world how our vision differs from the extremist one?   Finding the right balance is a tricky tightrope.

Some of those who come to these shores from somewhere else have an adverse reaction to the society we have built here.  Caught between their native culture and a new land, they begin to unravel.  It began with Sayyid Qutub, perhaps the grandfather of the modern jihadist, in 1948.  His two years here convinced him that American society clearly lacked the moral fiber of his native Egypt, and upon his return he began to preach violence.  But these people are the infinitesimal exception compared to the vast multitudes who have replenished the vibrancy of America over the centuries.  Anyone can be a crackpot and find a group or an ideology to justify their neurosis.  There are apple pie Americans in Michigan who justify bloody murder and call it justice.  Belief in Jesus (or Muhammad) does not absolve them.

We will need our immigrants more than ever now, legal and otherwise.  They are young and hard working compared to those who complain about them while at the same time jealously guarding the entitlements that have begun to bankrupt us.  Our Muslim minorities in particular are perhaps the key to victory in the long war against extremism.  The war that won’t be won with smart bombs and military tribunals.  They are the bridge between Western civilization and the Islamic world.  Those who have found a balance between their traditions and a new life and see no contradictions between embracing both.  This realization- not by leaders or generals, but by everyday people- will indeed save lives.  It cools the cauldron where extremism simmers.  It is not time to retreat behind barricades but rather to keep the gateways to our communities as wide open as ever.

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It’s too early to know all the facts in the failed Times Square car bomb, but its looks like at least one US citizen of Pakistani heritage was involved and that the plot emanated at least in part from South Asia. Coinciding with the recent conviction of the lone surviving Mumbai terrorist, also a Pakistani trained and equipped by a Pakistani terrorist group, one wonders if extremism has a more obvious global headquarters than the nuclear state where experts believe Osama Bin Laden and most of the top Al Qaeda leadership have found refuge.   If it turns out to be true that the Pakistani Taliban are indeed involved, as they claim to be, in this latest chapter of the NYC terror saga, then there will undoubtedly be renewed calls for a refocusing of our counter-terror efforts on Pakistan.

This is certainly part of what is needed as experts such as the Pakistani journalist Ahmad Rashid have been arguing for some time.  But the problem with our South Asia counter-terror policy is not resources, but tactics and strategy.  We spend $700 billion on war fighting a year (this does not include classified intelligence budgets).  This dwarves anything our adversaries- nations or terrorist groups- can bring to bear.  Less is often more, particularly in a long war where extremist groups feed off the sympathies of local populations that reel from a heavy-handed foreign presence.   Too often our terror policies in the past have defeated themselves by focusing only on throwing resources at the symptoms of the disease, rather than tackling the root causes.  This has to change unless we want to continue to play defense against a legion of suicide bombers.

While David Ignatius‘  assertion in today’s Washington Post is true – our counter-terror efforts have succeeded in severely degrading Al Qaeda top leadership – it is overshadowed by his ominous conclusion- jihadists are splintering, de-centralizing, and will be harder to target and liquidate.  While drone attacks and military clearing operations should not be abandoned entirely as tools, anyone who has visited northern Pakistan knows that they are not a long term strategy.  On the contrary, there is an accumulating cost to these tactics over time in the heavily tribal, retribution crazy culture of South Asia where blood revenge is a way of life.  If a brother or cousin or uncle is killed, it does not matter if he was helping bad people or doing bad things.  Honor demands a response.  This is a never-ending spiral.

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Obama’s nuclear dream seems nice and perhaps in another dimension of reality (paradoxically called Fantasy Land), achievable.  Down here on earth, nations will never give up nuclear capability once they have it because they will never know if their adversaries will develop it today or some time in the future.  (They don’t even know who their adversaries will be sometime in the future).  It is hard to believe that even the occasional anomaly that has publicly disavowed its nuclear weapons program, such as South Africa, has not privately retained the capability just in case.  This is the reality of our international system- beyond the niceties of diplomatic photo-ops, consensus and “free” trade, we still operate in a state of nature where threats must be confronted or deterred.

So lets talk about what this Nuclear Summit, with all of its accompanying motorcades and DC traffic jams, is really about.  Iran is developing the bomb.  Sanctions against the mullahs haven’t worked since their inception 30 years ago.  Negotiations are a maze of prevarication, delay, and hearsay.  Did we expect anything different?  Iran looks at North Korea and learns a valuable lesson: “even if we get that bad (and we wont), as long as we have the bomb they will take us seriously, they will hesitate to take us on because they will always stand to lose more.”  Again, nations don’t willingly give up the instruments of power.  They must be compelled to give them up, by realizing that it is more costly not to.

Hence, Obama’s Nuclear Summit, geared entirely towards increasing the costs to Iran of continuing its nuclear program.  How?  By showing the world, and in particular the two great powers most reluctant to join the embargo against Iran- China and Russia- that America is serious about nuclear proliferation and is taking concrete steps, both domestically and globally, to combat it.   Hence the intensely publicized timeline leading up to and during the Summit: the Nuclear Posture Review concluding that America would not invest in a new generation of warheads and would not use nukes against a non-nuclear threat, the new START reductions agreed with Russia, Ukraine’s unilateral relinquishment of its nuclear stock, a strongly worded suggestion to Benyamin Netanyahu to stay home in Israel and not attend the Summit.

A strongly worded suggestion to Benyamin Netanyahu to stay home in Israel and not attend the Summit?  Is this part of the non-nuclear campaign against Iran?  Well, yes.  America cannot command world public opinion against a nuclear Iran when its closest ally- a nation that has for 30 years thumbed its nose at every international convention against nuclear proliferation and does not even admit that it has them- is the all too visible elephant in the room.

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